On September 13, 2026, Sweden holds a general election. For most countries, a general election is a significant event. For Sweden in 2026, it is something more than that. It is the first national vote since Sweden joined NATO, the first since the most restrictive migration policy in the country’s modern history was put in place, and the first in which the Sweden Democrats — a party that grew out of the nationalist movements of the late 1980s — will campaign openly for cabinet seats rather than settling for influence from the outside.
- What kind of election is it — and who gets to vote?
- Where things stand right now: the polls in May 2026
- What voters care about most
- The Sweden Democrats’ ultimatum: what Tidö 2.0 would actually look like
- What happens if the left bloc wins?
- The mathematical reality: hung parliament risk
- Party strategies: who is targeting whom
- What this election means for people living in Sweden
- Sweden’s first post-NATO election
- September 13 is four months away
If you are living in Sweden, following Swedish politics from abroad, or trying to understand how this country works, this guide gives you a clear picture of what is at stake, who is likely to win, and what the result could actually change in practice.
What kind of election is it — and who gets to vote?
Three elections happen simultaneously on September 13. Voters choose their national parliament (riksdagsval), their regional council (regionval), and their municipal council (kommunalval) all in the same visit to the polling station. This matters because the eligibility rules are different for each.
The Riksdag election
To vote in the national parliamentary election, you must be a Swedish citizen, at least 18 years old on election day, and currently registered in the Swedish population register (folkbokförd) — or have been registered at some point in the past. Swedish citizens living abroad remain eligible for up to ten years after emigrating, provided they have renewed their registration with the Swedish Tax Agency. This renewal is required every ten years and can be done indefinitely.
Regional and municipal elections
The rules here are significantly broader. EU citizens and citizens of Norway and Iceland are eligible to vote in regional and municipal elections as soon as they are registered in Sweden. Citizens from all other countries — including non-EU immigrants — can vote in local and regional elections after three consecutive years of being registered as residents in Sweden. No application is required. If you are correctly registered in the population register and meet the eligibility requirements, you are automatically included on the electoral roll.
This means that a large portion of Sweden’s foreign-born population has a direct stake in the 2026 vote, even those who have not yet obtained Swedish citizenship.
Where things stand right now: the polls in May 2026
The current government is a three-party minority cabinet led by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, consisting of the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L). It governs with the support of the Sweden Democrats (SD) through the Tidö Agreement, which we covered in a previous post. Together, the four parties control 176 of the 349 Riksdag seats — a majority of exactly one.
As of May 2026, the polling picture looks like this:
| Party | May 2026 polling average | 2022 result | Threshold risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Social Democrats (S) | 32.5% | 30.3% | None |
| Sweden Democrats (SD) | 19.4% | 20.5% | None |
| Moderates (M) | 18.2% | 19.1% | None |
| Left Party (V) | 7.6% | 6.8% | None |
| Green Party (MP) | 7.3% | 5.1% | Low |
| Centre Party (C) | 5.8% | 6.7% | Moderate |
| Christian Democrats (KD) | 5.0% | 5.3% | Moderate |
| Liberals (L) | 2.5% | 4.6% | High |
The most important number in that table is the Liberals at 2.5%. The 4% national threshold is a hard cut-off — parties below it receive no seats. If the Liberals fail to enter the Riksdag, the current governing bloc loses approximately 15 to 17 seats, making a right-wing majority mathematically impossible without a fundamental realignment. The Liberals’ survival is the single biggest variable in the 2026 outcome.
On the other side, the Green Party has recovered significantly from its near-exit from the Riksdag in 2022 (when it scraped through with 5.1%) and is now polling at 7.3%, which strengthens the opposition bloc considerably.
What voters care about most
Crime and public safety remain the top concern for the Swedish electorate in 2026. The government’s record on gang violence is contested — shootings have declined in frequency, but bombings have increased and the recruitment of children and teenagers into criminal networks has intensified. This single issue cuts across class, geography, and party lines in ways that make it the most powerful campaign theme on both sides.
Migration remains the second most salient issue, and 2026 is the first election where voters can pass judgment on the full “paradigm shift” in asylum and integration policy that the Tidö government introduced. The tightening of citizenship requirements, the end of permanent residence permits for asylum cases, and the expansion of repatriation grants are all on the ballot in the sense that an opposition victory could reverse them.
Healthcare waiting times have reached record levels in several regions and are a central campaign issue for the Social Democrats, who argue that the government’s focus on law-and-order and tax cuts has come at the expense of investment in public services.
Energy costs and the nuclear pivot also feature strongly. The government has staked significant political capital on reversing the nuclear phase-out, and the opposition’s position — the Social Democrats now accept nuclear power as part of the mix, while the Greens and Left Party remain opposed — has created some internal tension in the left-red-green bloc.
Defence and NATO feature in a way that no previous Swedish election has experienced. Sweden’s 2024 NATO accession and its commitment to reaching 3.5% of GDP in defence spending by 2030 are broadly supported across the political spectrum, though the blocs differ on the pace and structure of military investment.
The Sweden Democrats’ ultimatum: what Tidö 2.0 would actually look like
The most consequential political development of the 2026 campaign is the Sweden Democrats’ demand for formal cabinet posts in any future right-wing government. Jimmie Åkesson has stated clearly that his party will not provide parliamentary support for a Moderate-led government unless SD ministers sit at the cabinet table. This is a significant departure from the Tidö model, where SD had real policy influence but no ministerial responsibility.
In June 2025, the Sweden Democrats took a step toward making this more politically acceptable by issuing an official apology for the party’s historical connections to Nazi movements and antisemitism — a move widely characterised as part of an effort to “detoxify” the party’s image ahead of the election campaign.
In March 2026, the Liberal Party formally dropped its previous “red lines” against SD entering government. This decision — which triggered the resignation of several prominent Liberal board members — was framed by party leadership as necessary to ensure that the right-wing bloc remained a viable governing option. The Moderates and Christian Democrats have been more cautious in their public statements, but neither has ruled out SD cabinet membership.
What would SD in government actually mean? The portfolios most likely to be demanded are Justice, Migration, and Social Affairs — the areas where SD policy influence has already been strongest under the Tidö Agreement. An SD Justice Minister would likely accelerate the lowering of the criminal age of responsibility, expand the scope of deportable offences, and push for a harder line on sentencing. An SD Migration Minister would pursue the abolition of permanent residence permits as a default outcome and further restrict family reunification.
The Nordic precedent: Finland’s Finns Party
Sweden is not the first Nordic country to face this question. In 2023, Finland’s Finns Party — which shares several ideological characteristics with the Sweden Democrats — entered government as a formal coalition partner under Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, taking control of the Finance and Interior ministries. The Finns Party’s polling dropped significantly in the months after entering government, a pattern that analysts attribute to the political cost of having to defend difficult budget decisions, but their presence in the cabinet has since stabilised. Political scientists watching Sweden cite the Finnish experience as evidence that radical-right parties can be absorbed into Nordic governance structures without a fundamental breakdown of democratic norms — though critics argue the comparison obscures important differences in the two parties’ histories and platforms.
What happens if the left bloc wins?
Current polling gives the Social Democrat-led opposition a narrow lead. A left-red-green bloc victory would bring Magdalena Andersson back to the Prime Minister’s office, most likely heading a minority government supported by the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and potentially the Centre Party (C).
The Centre Party’s role is the key unknown. Under its current leader, Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist, the party has positioned itself as a liberal alternative unwilling to cooperate with the Sweden Democrats. Whether it would formally support a Social Democrat minority government, abstain on budget votes, or demand a formal coalition agreement with specific policy concessions is the central question for any opposition government formation.
A Social Democrat-led government would likely take the following steps in the early months after taking office: shelving the proposed abolition of permanent residence permits, reviewing the “lifestyle deportation” proposals currently under legislative development, returning Sweden’s energy target framework to a debate that includes a stronger renewables component, and increasing regional healthcare budgets to reduce waiting times. The most restrictive elements of the Tidö agenda — the tightened citizenship requirements entering into force in June 2026, the higher work permit salary thresholds, and the search zones — would be harder to reverse quickly, both politically and legally.
What a left-led government would not reverse is Sweden’s NATO membership, the general direction of stricter migration management compared to the pre-2015 era, or the commitment to significant defence spending. The Social Democrats have accepted the new security reality and would not seek to undo the country’s strategic repositioning.
The mathematical reality: hung parliament risk
Sweden needs 175 seats for a majority. With the blocs currently separated by a few percentage points and the Liberals potentially falling below the 4% threshold, the mathematical scenarios are more uncertain than in any recent election.
Analysis of current polling data suggests approximately a 38% probability of a hung parliament — a result where neither bloc commands a clear majority and government formation requires extended cross-bloc negotiation. If this scenario materialises, the talman (Speaker) would lead a series of consultations with all party leaders, and the Centre Party could find itself in the position of deciding which bloc forms the government — not by joining it, but by choosing which side to support or abstain on.
If a PM candidate is rejected four times by the Riksdag, an extraordinary election must be called within three months. Sweden has never had an extraordinary election triggered by failed government formation, and virtually all political actors have a strong incentive to avoid one.
Party strategies: who is targeting whom
The Moderates are running on economic competence and a “middle-way” conservatism, targeting high-income urban professionals, suburban families, and rural business owners. Their messaging emphasises inflation victory, tax cuts, and the nuclear energy expansion as markers of responsible governance.
The Sweden Democrats are targeting the Swedish working class and voters in smaller towns, particularly those who feel that the mainstream parties — left and right — have failed to address crime and immigration in their communities. Their 2026 campaign places significant emphasis on the repatriation grants and the argument that Sweden’s welfare state should prioritise citizens and long-term residents.
The Social Democrats are running on “security in the everyday” — a framing designed to connect public safety with welfare state investment. Magdalena Andersson remains the most popular political leader in Sweden and is central to the party’s strategy. Their key targets are families with children, pensioners worried about healthcare, and workers who have felt the economic squeeze of the past three years.
The Green Party is targeting highly educated urban voters and younger people in Stockholm, Gothenburg, and Malmö, emphasising the climate crisis, public transport, and a more humane integration policy.
The Left Party is focusing on radicalized urban youth and low-income workers, running an unapologetically redistributive campaign that promises to ban private profits in tax-funded welfare services.
The Centre Party is targeting rural liberals and business owners who are alienated by the Sweden Democrats but uncomfortable with the left’s economic policies — a relatively small but potentially decisive slice of the electorate.
The Christian Democrats are focusing on elderly voters and families in southern Sweden, emphasising welfare for the elderly, family policy, and the proposal to nationalize hospital management.
The Liberals are in a fight for survival, targeting “school-first” voters and pro-EU liberals in urban areas. Their campaign is centred on education reform and the argument that a liberal voice is necessary within any right-wing government.
What this election means for people living in Sweden
The clearest way to understand what is at stake is to look at the concrete policy differences between the two possible outcomes.
If the right-wing bloc wins a second term and the Sweden Democrats enter the cabinet, the trajectory of the past four years accelerates. The proposed abolition of permanent residence permits becomes more likely to be enacted. Lifestyle-based deportations — where non-citizens can lose their residency status based on factors like debt or associations with criminal networks — move closer to law. Nuclear energy expansion proceeds at full pace. Work permit salary requirements remain at 90% of the median wage or potentially higher. Defence spending reaches 3.5% of GDP on schedule.
If the Social Democrats form a government, the direction shifts on migration and welfare. Permanent residence permits are preserved as a default outcome for qualifying asylum cases. The most controversial integration restrictions are reviewed. Healthcare funding increases. The energy debate reopens, with more room for renewable investment alongside nuclear. The welfare ceiling proposed for 2027 is likely to be revised or delayed.
For immigrants and foreign residents, the most directly relevant question is what happens to the migration and integration framework built under the Tidö Agreement. A right-wing second term means more of what has been introduced since 2022. A Social Democrat victory means a stabilisation of the current rules with no further tightening, and potentially some softening on residency and welfare conditionality — though not a return to the pre-2015 model.
For families with children, the key differences are in healthcare, school policy, and family benefits. The right bloc offers lower taxes and nuclear-powered energy security; the left bloc offers shorter healthcare queues and higher regional health funding.
For workers, the central question is the balance between tax cuts (right bloc priority) and stronger labour protections and welfare floors (left bloc priority). Both blocs support NATO and the general direction of Swedish industrial policy, including the green steel and battery manufacturing investments in the north.
Sweden’s first post-NATO election
One dimension of 2026 that has no precedent in Swedish electoral history is the international context. Sweden is voting as a NATO member for the first time, in the middle of an ongoing war on European soil, with US trade policy in a state of significant volatility. The Greenland dispute between the US and Denmark — which has created tariff risks for all Nordic countries — is a live issue for Swedish exporters in steel, machinery, and technology.
Both blocs are committed to NATO membership and to meaningful defence spending. The Foreign Policy Statement delivered by Prime Minister Kristersson in February 2026 placed Sweden firmly within the transatlantic framework and emphasised Arctic and Baltic security cooperation. The opposition’s foreign policy positions are largely aligned, though they emphasise multilateral solutions and EU cohesion more strongly than the current government.
The EU Migration Pact, which enters into force in June 2026, will require Sweden to implement new border screening procedures and faster asylum processing regardless of which government takes office in October. The two blocs differ on how strictly to apply the pact’s optional provisions, particularly the “return hubs” mechanism for processing asylum seekers in third countries — a measure the current government supports and the opposition would likely resist.
September 13 is four months away
A lot can change between now and election day. The Liberals’ polling trajectory, the fate of the welfare ceiling and age-of-criminal-responsibility votes in the Riksdag, any further developments in the kvittning scandal — all of these could shift the numbers. What is clear is that this is one of the most consequential Swedish elections in a generation, and the outcome will be felt in almost every area of public life for the following four years.
If you are eligible to vote in any of the three elections — national, regional, or local — your voting card will arrive in the post automatically about three weeks before the election. If you are not sure which elections you can participate in, check one of my previous posts here.
If you have questions about any of the parties, the issues, or how the voting process works, leave a comment below. And if this kind of guide to Swedish politics and society is useful to you, the LikeSweden newsletter is the best way to stay informed as the campaign develops.
